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Many experts in the iron and steel industry believe that in the face of the global economic slowdown, the demand for steel products will remain unfavorable next year, and steel companies will have to overcrowd their difficulties.
An economic forecast report issued by the United Nations in early December pointed out that if the stimulus plans put forward by various countries are not large enough and the promotion time is too late, the global economy may shrink further due to the financial crisis. The world economic growth rate next year will be 2.5% this year. Slow down to 1%.
Slowing global economic growth will directly affect the export of domestic steel products. The China Iron and Steel Association believes that although the country has lifted 67 tariffs on steel products from December 1, which will help reduce export costs, due to shrinking international market demand, exports of steel products will decline in 2009 and exports will decline. If exports of electromechanical and home appliances in China decline in 2009, indirect steel exports will also decline. China Steel Association proposes that steel enterprises implement the strategy of diversification of exports, actively explore new markets, and strive to maintain the appropriate level of steel exports.
There are also industry analysts who believe that the general rise of international trade protectionism may completely offset the benefits of tariff adjustments. For example, some institutions in Europe and the United States have already proposed to impose anti-dumping duties on China's export of steel and metal products (fasteners).
The lack of external demand can only be based on domestic demand. After entering the third quarter, the state introduced a series of "guaranteed growth" measures, implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, increased investment in fixed assets, and decided to increase fixed assets investment by 4 trillion yuan by 2010. . These measures to expand domestic demand are a good thing for the steel market. Experts estimate that 4 trillion yuan of investment can drive 150 million tons of steel consumption.
However, these measures to expand domestic demand from the introduction to effective, eventually leading to the emergence of a large number of steel orders, but also a process. According to the preliminary analysis, this "lag period of effect" should have a period of one to one and a half years. In other words, it will not be seen until the second half of 2009.
Experts predict that due to the further deceleration of the domestic and international economic environment, China's steel demand growth will continue to slow in 2009. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of steel will not exceed 600 million tons in the year, an increase of 10% or less from the previous year, showing a deceleration situation. Given that the operating environment of the steel market in 2009 may be more severe, steel manufacturers and traders must be prepared for too tight a day.
In the face of severe market conditions, the China Steel Association recommends that steel production companies must adhere to the principle of sales and production. To strengthen self-discipline in the industry, manufacturers and distributors must work together to tide over difficulties, resolutely stop unfair competition below cost sales, and promote the smooth operation of the steel market.
In 2008, the great changes in the Chinese steel market caused many steel companies to pay a terrible price. In 2009, will the domestic steel companies usher in a bumper year?